The Pulse of Toronto Poll Fall 2017

A Brief Commentary on the Results

With poll results like this, it should already be over in Toronto for Premier Kathleen Wynne and her Liberal Party, just nine months out before election day in June 2018. Imagine any other candidate or party where only 25% of the electorate felt that the incumbent government deserves to be re-elected and that only 11% would absolutely cast their vote for the Leader and her Party.

It’s a rare thing to see a political party and its leader so far down in the polls and still have oxygen its lungs. But it does, for one reason: elections are about choices.

And if there’s a glimmer of hope and optimism for Premier Kathleen Wynne and her Liberal Party in Toronto it must be with the fact that Patrick Brown and his Conservative Party along with Andrea Horwath and her New Democratic Party have yet to come out on the battlefield.
The Ontario liberal party has completely outflanked the NDP and occupy the near and the far left of the political spectrum. And as for the Conservatives, the Liberals have run campaigns over the last decade and a half where it looked like they were on the ropes and then snatched
victory from the mouth of defeat as the Conservative leader, each time, led the implosion of his party with a self-inflicted position.

In fact, in the last provincial election, the Liberal leaning Toronto looked like it would not deliver but in the voting booth roughly 4% or so who started to mark their ballot for the NDP changed it to the Liberals to fend off a potential Conservative victory. In this upcoming election there might be a similar phenomenon.

The poll deliberately didn’t ask the vote horserace question. After all, with nine months to go with sentiment the way it is it would be very revealing of the potential political landscape. So with the poll tried to determine is how committed Torontonians are to tossing out Premier
Wynne and her Liberal government. The findings are fascinating because it suggests that in the absence of the “real campaign” voters are taking a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the protagonists to emerge and to make their assessment for the ballot box.

The poll shows that despite a huge negative view on the remainder of her tenure, there are 45% of Torontonians who are still open to voting for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne depending upon what the campaign brings.

And so, as politics should be, it will likely be about making hard choices, and it may not be known for some time how the wind will likely blow on election day.

 

John Wright
CEO – DART Insight
DART Insight and Communications
jwright@dartincom.ca

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